[ DISTRIBUCIÓN POTENCIAL MEDIANTE ESCENARIOS FUTUROS DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO PARA LA ARDILLA DE PETERS EN EL EJE NEOVOLCANICO ]
Volume 43, Issue 2, August 2024, Pages 240–250
Enrique Buendía-Rodríguez1, José Gilberto Chávez-León2, Tomás Pineda-Ojeda3, Adrián Hernández-Ramos4, Jonathan Hernández-Ramos5, and José Israel Lopéz-Martínez6
1 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
2 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
3 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
4 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
5 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
6 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
Original language: Spanish
Copyright © 2024 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The high risk of extinction of fauna species has generated great interest in studies of current and potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change in order to implement conservation policies and carry out the preservation of ecosystems that can serve as reservoirs of biodiversity. The objective was to generate maps of potential distribution in two climate change scenarios of the Mexican Squirrel (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) to serve as a basis for determining protection, conservation and management zones for this species in the Trans-mexican volcanic belt by means of ecological niche simulation models. We used 105 pairs of S. oculatus occurrence data from the GBIF-Mexico database, 19 climatic and environmental variables (BioClim) for two scenarios 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, from the GCM model CNRM-CM6-1 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in addition to the current potential distribution. The Maximum Entropy Algorithm was used to generate the suitability maps using suitability values of 0.4-0.6 low, 0.61-0.8 medium and 0.81-1.0 high. The largest area with high suitability was the northwestern region of the State of Mexico; the areas with high suitability comprised 6359 ha (4 %), medium of 23,510 ha (14.7 %) and low of 26750 ha (16.7 %), for a present potential distribution. It is concluded that the modeling with Maxent’s algorithm allowed generating potential distribution maps in two future scenarios for the Mexican Squirrel (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) with values of AUC > 0.959 and kappa > 0.8923.
Author Keywords: Biogeographic patterns, climate change, drastic future scenario, maxent, spatial modeling, wildlife.
Volume 43, Issue 2, August 2024, Pages 240–250
Enrique Buendía-Rodríguez1, José Gilberto Chávez-León2, Tomás Pineda-Ojeda3, Adrián Hernández-Ramos4, Jonathan Hernández-Ramos5, and José Israel Lopéz-Martínez6
1 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
2 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
3 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
4 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
5 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
6 Coatlinchán, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico
Original language: Spanish
Copyright © 2024 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The high risk of extinction of fauna species has generated great interest in studies of current and potential distribution under different future scenarios of climate change in order to implement conservation policies and carry out the preservation of ecosystems that can serve as reservoirs of biodiversity. The objective was to generate maps of potential distribution in two climate change scenarios of the Mexican Squirrel (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) to serve as a basis for determining protection, conservation and management zones for this species in the Trans-mexican volcanic belt by means of ecological niche simulation models. We used 105 pairs of S. oculatus occurrence data from the GBIF-Mexico database, 19 climatic and environmental variables (BioClim) for two scenarios 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, from the GCM model CNRM-CM6-1 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, in addition to the current potential distribution. The Maximum Entropy Algorithm was used to generate the suitability maps using suitability values of 0.4-0.6 low, 0.61-0.8 medium and 0.81-1.0 high. The largest area with high suitability was the northwestern region of the State of Mexico; the areas with high suitability comprised 6359 ha (4 %), medium of 23,510 ha (14.7 %) and low of 26750 ha (16.7 %), for a present potential distribution. It is concluded that the modeling with Maxent’s algorithm allowed generating potential distribution maps in two future scenarios for the Mexican Squirrel (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) with values of AUC > 0.959 and kappa > 0.8923.
Author Keywords: Biogeographic patterns, climate change, drastic future scenario, maxent, spatial modeling, wildlife.
Abstract: (spanish)
El elevado riesgo de extinción de las especies de fauna ha generado un gran interés en estudios de distribución actual y potencial bajo diferentes escenarios futuros de cambio climático con la finalidad de aplicar políticas de conservación y llevar a cabo la preservación de los ecosistemas que puedan servir como reservorios de biodiversidad. El objetivo fue generar mapas de distribución potencial en dos escenarios de cambio climático de la Ardilla de peter (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) que sirva como base para determinar zonas de protección, conservación y manejo de esta especie en el Eje Neovolcánico mediante modelos de simulación de nicho ecológico. Se emplearon 105 pares de datos de presencia de S. oculatus de la base de datos de GBIF- México, 19 variables climáticas y ambientales (BioClim) para dos escenarios 2041-2060 y 2061-2080, del modelo MCG CNRM-CM6-1 con RCP4.5 y RCP 8.5, además de la distribución potencial actual. Se utilizó el Algoritmo de Máxima Entropía para generar los mapas de aptitud utilizando valores de idoneidad de 0.4-0.6 baja, 0.61-0.8 media y 0.81-1.0 alta. La mayor superficie con aptitud alta fue la región noroeste del Estado de México; las zonas con aptitud alta comprenden 6359 ha (4 %), media de 23510 ha (14.7 %) y baja de 26750 ha (16.7 %), para una distribución potencial presente. Se concluye que el modelado con algoritmo de Maxent, permitió generar mapas de distribución potencial en dos escenarios futuros para la Ardilla de peter (Sciurus oculatus Peters, 1863) con valores de AUC > 0.959 y kappa > 0.8923.
Author Keywords: Cambio climático, escenario futuro drástico, fauna, Maxent, modelado espacial, patrones biogeográficos.
How to Cite this Article
Enrique Buendía-Rodríguez, José Gilberto Chávez-León, Tomás Pineda-Ojeda, Adrián Hernández-Ramos, Jonathan Hernández-Ramos, and José Israel Lopéz-Martínez, “POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION THROUGH FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR PETERS SQUIRRELS IN THE TRANS-MEXICAN VOLCANIC BELT,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 240–250, August 2024.
