Centre de Recherches Environnementales, Agricoles et de Formation de Kamboinsin (CREAF), Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA), 01 BP 476 Ouagadougou 01, Burkina Faso
In Burkina Faso, pastoralism plays an important role in the development of animal production. However, the factors of its survival today remain insufficiently controlled. The objective of this study is to determine the important variables involved in predicting the survival of pastoralism in Sahelian countries plagued by insecurity. This study was conducted in two agroecological zones of Burkina Faso. It consisted of the selection of variables using the Random Forest package of Minitab 19.1 software to assess the importance of these variables in predicting the future practice of pastoral mobility. The results showed that the number of cattle was high among migrants with great variability (60 to 80 heads). Native herders have the highest numbers of small ruminants respectively 25 to 35 for sheep and 20 to 33 for goats. The results of the model showed eleven (11) variables strongly influenced the importance of the variables; The main variables were the village (55.48%), cattle population (14.754%), animal acquisition method (8.716%), and age (4.461%). Geographical and zootechnical factors were predominant, unlike social variables, which had little influence. In the current context of major social changes, it would be important to emphasize that a strategic approach could benefit the sustainability of pastoral farming. In order to ensure the survival and prosperity of this ancestral practice, it would be wise to carefully consider and effectively integrate the important variables.