In Niger, the combined effects of climate variability and climate change, together with anthropogenic pressure over recent decades, have strongly influenced land-use dynamics, particularly within agricultural systems. In the municipality of Kéllé, located in the Gouré Department (Zinder Region), spatio-temporal landscape analysis reveals, as in many other municipalities in Niger, significant changes in landscape evolution. In the present study, the analysis of satellite imagery and the use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) made it possible to trace ongoing changes between 1995 and 2025, in order to identify general trends and support decision-making in community-based natural resource management.
The main objective of this study is to detect land-use dynamics in the municipality in response to climate change and human activities. The methodology is based on the interpretation of Landsat satellite imagery from 1995, 2015, and 2025. The results obtained from land-use maps, change-detection maps between observation dates, and a predictive map up to 2035 indicate that land use in the municipality is undergoing continuous transformation.
Thus, areas occupied by tree-shrub steppe and dense tree steppe decreased from 62.54% and 10.79% in 1995 to 60.76% and 7.94% in 2025, respectively. In contrast, rainfed croplands and bare or degraded soils expanded, increasing from 17.44% and 0.82% in 1995 to 31.81% and 0.51% in 2025, respectively, relative to the total area of the municipality.
The projected trend of the natural environment suggests that by 2035, tree-shrub steppe will continue to decline, while dense tree steppe is expected to expand.