Volume 16, Issue 1, May 2016, Pages 94–101
Douaik Ahmed1, Youssfi Elkettani2, and Abdulbakee Kasem3
1 Institut National de Recherche Agronomique de Rabat, Morocco
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University Ibn Tofail, Kenitra, Morocco
3 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University Ibn Tofail, Kenitra, Morocco
Original language: English
Copyright © 2016 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
In this paper we provided modeling for the food gap in Yemen. We have studied this model by descriptive and analytical studies and formulated a model for the food gap, we estimated its parameters and predicted for the coming ten years using the Box and Jenkins methodology of time series analysis. Then, we compared this methodology to the exponential smoothing and simple regression methods. We found the following main results for the three time series regarding the food gap: 1. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food importation series. 2. Brown exponential smoothing model to predict the price of food exportation series. 3. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food production series. Through the results, we concluded that food production will not meet the local demand for food, where of the equation: local demand consumption of food = food importation + food production - food exportation. The ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 29.3 % in 2015 and to continue to decline to reach 28.8 % in 2020.
Author Keywords: Time Series, Food security, Forecasting.
Douaik Ahmed1, Youssfi Elkettani2, and Abdulbakee Kasem3
1 Institut National de Recherche Agronomique de Rabat, Morocco
2 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University Ibn Tofail, Kenitra, Morocco
3 Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University Ibn Tofail, Kenitra, Morocco
Original language: English
Copyright © 2016 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
In this paper we provided modeling for the food gap in Yemen. We have studied this model by descriptive and analytical studies and formulated a model for the food gap, we estimated its parameters and predicted for the coming ten years using the Box and Jenkins methodology of time series analysis. Then, we compared this methodology to the exponential smoothing and simple regression methods. We found the following main results for the three time series regarding the food gap: 1. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food importation series. 2. Brown exponential smoothing model to predict the price of food exportation series. 3. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food production series. Through the results, we concluded that food production will not meet the local demand for food, where of the equation: local demand consumption of food = food importation + food production - food exportation. The ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 29.3 % in 2015 and to continue to decline to reach 28.8 % in 2020.
Author Keywords: Time Series, Food security, Forecasting.
How to Cite this Article
Douaik Ahmed, Youssfi Elkettani, and Abdulbakee Kasem, “Application of statistical methods of time-series for estimate and predict of the food gap in Yemen,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 94–101, May 2016.
