[ Les incidences des importations sur l’inflation en RD Congo de 1980 à 2016 : Une approche de co-intégration basée sur le Modèle Vectoriel à Correction d’Erreur (VECM) ]
Volume 30, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 527–534
Jean Paul LISELE SHUWA1 and Piva Asaloko Prince2
1 Enseignant-Chercheur, Université de Kisangani « UNIKIS », Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, RD Congo
2 Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Yaoundé II- SOA, Yaoundé, Cameroun
Original language: French
Copyright © 2020 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This article aims to assess the impact of imports on inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1980 to 2016. Using a vector-error-correction model (VECM), the results show that: Imports induce the level of inflation in the DRC; Moreover, inflation is also explained by the money supply, the long-term exchange rate, economic growth and the budget deficit in the short and long term; Moreover, an innovation in the standard deviation of the inflation rate of the order of one unit (a positive shock) generally results in a positive effect on its values during the period under consideration; this is not the case for the exchange rate and the economic growth rate, which are negatively affected by the said shock during the same period.
Author Keywords: Monetary policy, money supply, imported inflation, error-correction vector model, budget deficit.
Volume 30, Issue 2, August 2020, Pages 527–534
Jean Paul LISELE SHUWA1 and Piva Asaloko Prince2
1 Enseignant-Chercheur, Université de Kisangani « UNIKIS », Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, RD Congo
2 Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Yaoundé II- SOA, Yaoundé, Cameroun
Original language: French
Copyright © 2020 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This article aims to assess the impact of imports on inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1980 to 2016. Using a vector-error-correction model (VECM), the results show that: Imports induce the level of inflation in the DRC; Moreover, inflation is also explained by the money supply, the long-term exchange rate, economic growth and the budget deficit in the short and long term; Moreover, an innovation in the standard deviation of the inflation rate of the order of one unit (a positive shock) generally results in a positive effect on its values during the period under consideration; this is not the case for the exchange rate and the economic growth rate, which are negatively affected by the said shock during the same period.
Author Keywords: Monetary policy, money supply, imported inflation, error-correction vector model, budget deficit.
Abstract: (french)
Cet article vise à évaluer les incidences des importations sur l’inflation en République Démocratique du Congo de 1980 à 2016. En utilisant un modèle à correction d’erreur vectoriel (VECM), les résultats révèlent que: Les importations ont induit le niveau d’inflation à la hausse en RDC; Par ailleurs, l’inflation est aussi expliquée par la masse monétaire, le taux de change à long terme, la croissance économique et le déficit budgétaire à court et long terme. En outre, une innovation dans l’écart type du taux d’inflation de l’ordre d’une unité (un choc positif) se traduit généralement par un effet positif sur ses valeurs durant la période prise en considération; ce qui n’est pas le cas sur le taux de change et le taux de croissance économique lesquels sont affectés négativement par ledit choc durant la même période.
Author Keywords: Politique monétaire, masse monétaire, inflation importée, modèle vectoriel à correction d’erreur, déficit budgétaire.
How to Cite this Article
Jean Paul LISELE SHUWA and Piva Asaloko Prince, “The impact of imports on inflation in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 1980 to 2016 : Using a co-integration approach based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM),” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 527–534, August 2020.
