[ Concordance des cycles d'activité du Maroc et de ses principaux partenaires commerciaux ]
Volume 11, Issue 1, April 2015, Pages 103–113
Jennat Benhida1
1 Centre Monnaie Finance Banque, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Université Mohamed V-Agdal, Rabat, Maroc
Original language: French
Copyright © 2015 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
In connection with the recent international crisis, economic activity in Morocco's key partner countries, including the European Union, has slowed significantly, raising fears over the spread of recessionary factors in Morocco. However, macroeconomic fundamentals of Morocco and the strength of domestic demand, could partially offset the effects of the crisis. However, it revealed the degree of trade integration with Morocco and risks borne by the slowdown in foreign demand. The present work aims to assess the synchronization between real Moroccan and European cycles, through an approach based on the study of phenomena of co- movements and relies on parametric methods for detecting turning points of cycles activity.
Author Keywords: business cycles, conjuncture, synchronization, reversal, co-movement, parametric methods.
Volume 11, Issue 1, April 2015, Pages 103–113
Jennat Benhida1
1 Centre Monnaie Finance Banque, Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Université Mohamed V-Agdal, Rabat, Maroc
Original language: French
Copyright © 2015 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
In connection with the recent international crisis, economic activity in Morocco's key partner countries, including the European Union, has slowed significantly, raising fears over the spread of recessionary factors in Morocco. However, macroeconomic fundamentals of Morocco and the strength of domestic demand, could partially offset the effects of the crisis. However, it revealed the degree of trade integration with Morocco and risks borne by the slowdown in foreign demand. The present work aims to assess the synchronization between real Moroccan and European cycles, through an approach based on the study of phenomena of co- movements and relies on parametric methods for detecting turning points of cycles activity.
Author Keywords: business cycles, conjuncture, synchronization, reversal, co-movement, parametric methods.
Abstract: (french)
En lien avec la crise internationale récente, l'activité économique chez les principaux pays partenaires du Maroc, notamment l'Union Européenne, a sensiblement ralenti, faisant craindre la propagation de facteurs de récession au Maroc. Les fondamentaux macroéconomiques du Maroc et la vigueur de la demande intérieure ont cependant, pu amortir partiellement les effets de la crise. Toutefois, cette dernière a révélé le degré d'intégration commerciale du Maroc et les risques portés par le tassement de la demande étrangère. Le présent travail s'attache à apprécier la synchronisation entre les cycles réels marocain et européen, à travers une approche basée sur l'examen de phénomènes de co-mouvement et s'appuie sur des méthodes paramétriques pour la détection de points de retournements des cycles d'activité et sur l'utilisation de statistiques de test.
Author Keywords: cycles d'activité, conjoncture, synchronisation, retournement, co-mouvement, méthodes paramétriques.
How to Cite this Article
Jennat Benhida, “Synchronization of business cycles of Morocco and its main trading partners,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 103–113, April 2015.
