[ Variabilité du taux de change et investissements directs étrangers (IDE) au Maroc ]
Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 312–323
Ahmed HEFNAOUI1, Idriss Iaataren2, and Anas Nadri3
1 Eseignant chercheur en sciences économiques, Université Hassan II Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Maroc
2 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
3 FSJES Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
The exchange rate has always attracted the attention of researchers in an ever-changing economy, especially for its effects on macroeconomic aggregates and on the attractiveness of investments. However, there was no consensus on its impact on foreign direct investment (FDI). In this respect, this Communication aims to understand the impact of exchange rate volatility on FDI in Morocco, using a cointegration approach using an ARDL model to estimate short- and long-term effects. The data used are quarterly, covering the period from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2021, representing 60 observations. The period chosen represents a period of economic and institutional reforms aimed at improving the business climate in Morocco, it is also marked by changes in exchange and tax policies, which is likely to influence the choice of foreign investors. The empirical results show that in the short and long term, the real effective exchange rate has a negative and highly significant impact. Inflation has a positive effect, which means that higher prices can lead to greater marginal profitability of capital and thus stimulate investment. In addition, it seems that the size of the potential market, the quality of institutions and infrastructures are key factors in attracting foreign capital to Morocco.
Author Keywords: Exchange rate regime, FDI, ARDL, cointegration, Morocco.
Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 312–323
Ahmed HEFNAOUI1, Idriss Iaataren2, and Anas Nadri3
1 Eseignant chercheur en sciences économiques, Université Hassan II Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Maroc
2 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
3 FSJES Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
The exchange rate has always attracted the attention of researchers in an ever-changing economy, especially for its effects on macroeconomic aggregates and on the attractiveness of investments. However, there was no consensus on its impact on foreign direct investment (FDI). In this respect, this Communication aims to understand the impact of exchange rate volatility on FDI in Morocco, using a cointegration approach using an ARDL model to estimate short- and long-term effects. The data used are quarterly, covering the period from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2021, representing 60 observations. The period chosen represents a period of economic and institutional reforms aimed at improving the business climate in Morocco, it is also marked by changes in exchange and tax policies, which is likely to influence the choice of foreign investors. The empirical results show that in the short and long term, the real effective exchange rate has a negative and highly significant impact. Inflation has a positive effect, which means that higher prices can lead to greater marginal profitability of capital and thus stimulate investment. In addition, it seems that the size of the potential market, the quality of institutions and infrastructures are key factors in attracting foreign capital to Morocco.
Author Keywords: Exchange rate regime, FDI, ARDL, cointegration, Morocco.
Abstract: (french)
Le taux de change a toujours attiré l’attention des chercheurs dans une économie en constante évolution, notamment pour ses effets sur les agrégats macroéconomiques et sur l’attractivité des investissements. Cependant, il n’y a pas eu de consensus autour de son impact sur les investissements directs étrangers (IDE). A cet égard, le présent travail vise à appréhender l’incidence de la volatilité du taux de change sur les IDE au Maroc, en recourant à une approche de cointégration par un modèle ARDL permettant d’estimer les effets à court et à long-terme. Les données utilisées sont à fréquence trimestrielle, elles couvrent la période allant du premier trimestre de 2007 au quatrième trimestre de 2021, représentant 60 observations. La période choisie correspond à un chantier de réformes sur le plan économique et institutionnel en vue d’améliorer le climat des affaires au Maroc, elle est aussi marquée par des changements apportés aux politiques de change et fiscale, susceptibles d’influencer le choix des investisseurs étrangers. Les résultats empiriques révèlent qu’à court et à long-terme, le taux de change effectif réel exerce un impact négatif et fortement significatif. L’inflation exerce un effet positif, ce qui signifie qu’une plus hausse des prix peut entraîner une plus grande rentabilité marginale du capital et donc stimuler l’investissement. En outre, il semblerait que la taille du marché potentiel, la qualité des institutions et des infrastructures sont des facteurs clés pour attirer les capitaux étrangers au Maroc.
Author Keywords: Régime de change, IDE, ARDL, cointégration, Maroc.
How to Cite this Article
Ahmed HEFNAOUI, Idriss Iaataren, and Anas Nadri, “Exchange rate variability and foreign direct investment (FDI) in Morocco,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 312–323, March 2023.
