[ Transmission des variations du taux de change et du cours de pétrole au prix à la consommation: Cas du Maroc ]
Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 292–311
Ahmed HEFNAOUI1, Leila Zniber2, and Idriss Iaataren3
1 Eseignant chercheur en sciences économiques, Université Hassan II Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Maroc
2 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
3 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This article analyzes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations and oil to consumer prices in Morocco, known as the «pass-through». This reflection comes in the context of the continued flexibility of the exchange rate regime initiated in January 2018, and following the decompensation of petroleum product prices carried out in January 2015, as part of the gradual liberalization of the prices of subsidized products. Thus, this paper consists in evaluating this Pass-through in Morocco using a cointegration approach through an ARDL model. The results obtained show the existence of a long-term relationship between exchange rate or oil fluctuation and the consumer price, as well as the existence of an error correction mechanism that adjusts prices during short-term instability.
Author Keywords: Pass-through, Exchange rate regime, IPC, Brent, ARDL, Morocco.
Volume 39, Issue 1, March 2023, Pages 292–311
Ahmed HEFNAOUI1, Leila Zniber2, and Idriss Iaataren3
1 Eseignant chercheur en sciences économiques, Université Hassan II Mohammedia, Mohammedia, Maroc
2 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
3 Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - Mohammedia, Université HASSAN II - Casablanca, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This article analyzes the transmission mechanism of exchange rate fluctuations and oil to consumer prices in Morocco, known as the «pass-through». This reflection comes in the context of the continued flexibility of the exchange rate regime initiated in January 2018, and following the decompensation of petroleum product prices carried out in January 2015, as part of the gradual liberalization of the prices of subsidized products. Thus, this paper consists in evaluating this Pass-through in Morocco using a cointegration approach through an ARDL model. The results obtained show the existence of a long-term relationship between exchange rate or oil fluctuation and the consumer price, as well as the existence of an error correction mechanism that adjusts prices during short-term instability.
Author Keywords: Pass-through, Exchange rate regime, IPC, Brent, ARDL, Morocco.
Abstract: (french)
Cet article analyse le mécanisme de transmission des fluctuations du taux de change et du pétrole au prix à la consommation au Maroc, connu sous l’appellation du « Pass-through». Cette réflexion intervient dans le contexte de la poursuite de la flexibilisation du régime de change amorcée en janvier 2018, et suite à la décompensation des prix des produits pétroliers effectuée en janvier 2015, s’inscrivant dans la libéralisation progressive des prix des produits subventionnés. Ainsi, l’objectif de ce papier consiste à évaluer ce Pass-through au Maroc en utilisant une approche de cointégration à travers un modèle ARDL. Les résultats obtenus montrent l’existence d’une relation de long-terme liant les fluctuations du taux de change et du pétrole, d’une part, au prix à la consommation d’autre part, ainsi que l’existence d’un mécanisme de correction d’erreur qui ajuste les prix lors de l’instabilité à court-terme.
Author Keywords: Pass-through, Régime de change, IPC, Brent, ARDL, Maroc.
How to Cite this Article
Ahmed HEFNAOUI, Leila Zniber, and Idriss Iaataren, “Exchange rate and oil price pass-through to consumer prices: Case of Morocco,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 292–311, March 2023.
