Tunisian policy for road safety is neither clear nor reliable. Each road organism acts on own its side without any coordination with other stakeholders and therefore without achieving results. This paper aims to facilitate the decision-making process on road safety in Tunisia through the time series analysis of road accidents. The analysis work will allow identifying better the respective weight of the factors associated with the road accident frequency. Methodologically, ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used to meet our above goal. Moreover, the methodology of Box Jenkins intervenes as a statistical solution to solve the problem of time series analysis. The results show that the time series of accidents are mainly characterized by two different periods in terms of trend. A low decrease in the number of accidents before the revolution (2011) (between 2007 and the end of 2010) and the irregular evolution in the rest of the series. Then, models are developed in accident cases and ARIMA (0, 1, 2) is identified as the best model. A three-year forecast is made using the best model and it shows that the number of road accidents would decrease due to several factors in Tunisia. Consequently, this study shows that the temporal analysis of the time series of road accidents can attract the attention of decision-makers to the importance of the application of key road safety measures in the short, medium and long term as well as the nature of the relationship between the different decision-makers horizons.

The positive impact of the liberalization of air transport, largely supported by the economic theory and "validated" by the empirical studies, has inspired many developing countries to liberalize some of their Air Service Agreements (ASA). After Nigeria and Morocco, Tunisia has signed in December 11th, 2017 the agreement of Open Sky with the European Union (EU), its historic economic partner. Thus, the Tunisian airlines will be exposed to key issues emanating from both the agreement and the activation of the Yamoussoukro Declaration signed more than 15 years ago. Given these potential deep conditioning mutations, in the future Tunisian air transport, this paper will attempt to predict and compare the dynamics of air demand in Tunisia from the initiation of both agreements. The aim of our work is to qualify the effects of the Tunisian-EU Open Sky and Yamoussoukro agreement based on the reproduction of passenger traffic Reference situation marked by its restrictive character, using macroeconomic factors (trade and GDP), the distance and the ASA liberalization indicator to build our econometric model. The comparison will be justified by a working simulation of various liberalization options.