In this paper we provided modeling for the food gap in Yemen. We have studied this model by descriptive and analytical studies and formulated a model for the food gap, we estimated its parameters and predicted for the coming ten years using the Box and Jenkins methodology of time series analysis. Then, we compared this methodology to the exponential smoothing and simple regression methods.
We found the following main results for the three time series regarding the food gap:
1. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food importation series.
2. Brown exponential smoothing model to predict the price of food exportation series.
3. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model to predict the price of food production series.
Through the results, we concluded that food production will not meet the local demand for food, where of the equation: local demand consumption of food = food importation + food production - food exportation. The ratio of production to consumption is expected to reach 29.3 % in 2015 and to continue to decline to reach 28.8 % in 2020.